Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 6.721134 7.965977 9.340715 10.966482 12.831290 14.897941 17.355973
2025-02-09 5.081056 6.737118 8.742102 11.327032 14.547818 18.403475 23.340455
2025-02-16 3.887179 5.676711 8.018885 11.262020 15.581974 21.077938 28.528235
2025-02-23 2.974383 4.741461 7.221266 10.876578 16.032757 22.937621 32.750783
2025-03-02 2.299333 3.977714 6.489308 10.406793 16.221235 24.364237 36.417979
2025-03-09 1.906540 3.548184 6.148104 10.407248 17.009591 26.611527 41.314919
2025-03-16 1.608990 3.207446 5.876046 10.448643 17.820756 28.909380 46.405597
2025-03-23 1.359998 2.897603 5.597577 10.424467 18.496692 31.021268 51.331423
2025-03-30 1.098462 2.510011 5.122312 10.000212 18.465885 32.016098 54.595027
2025-04-06 0.941794 2.292047 4.910656 9.991076 19.096926 34.067314 59.598260
2025-04-13 0.803780 2.083099 4.681446 9.914169 19.588971 35.907007 64.355705
2025-04-20 0.749908 2.045390 4.776278 10.441757 21.176577 39.648760 72.409084
2025-04-27 0.687133 1.978867 4.810754 10.870784 22.648125 43.335647 80.672394
2025-05-04 0.636475 1.931476 4.878767 11.373245 24.298379 47.440973 89.890297
2025-05-11 0.551973 1.780594 4.700428 11.353724 24.956613 49.843702 96.328134
2025-05-18 0.456899 1.578087 4.373113 10.979589 24.886408 50.925559 100.512095
2025-05-25 0.372254 1.381227 4.024288 10.510210 24.572650 51.523151 103.846681
2025-06-01 0.325249 1.282398 3.896012 10.512014 25.208612 53.913690 110.523173
2025-06-08 0.286428 1.198580 3.791636 10.554194 25.927110 56.496462 117.677310
2025-06-15 0.250021 1.112324 3.666244 10.529941 26.497144 58.819250 124.457717
2025-06-22 0.204443 0.979429 3.389872 10.102009 26.144346 59.298596 127.771697
2025-06-29 0.179022 0.912269 3.286741 10.092805 26.718842 61.656027 134.789987
2025-07-06 0.155023 0.842519 3.163372 10.015225 27.127710 63.695066 141.282710